Mound Musings: Checking in on NL Bullpens

Last week, we looked at some potential endgame shakeups in the American League, and this week we'll do the same for the National League. I've always enjoyed looking at bullpens and the pitchers who toil there throughout the season. For one thing, if you can stay one step ahead of the other owners in your league, bullpen analysis can return a very nice dividend for your research, if you can predict the new roles in those bullpens as they evolve – and perhaps more than ever before, they are evolving.

Bullpens can be constantly adapting

Ideally, teams prefer to have fairly specific roles with regard to their daily bullpen assignments. In a perfect world, the starting pitcher would provide six, or, better yet, seven strong innings, whereupon the set-up guys would pitch the seventh and/or eighth inning before turning the game over to the closer to finish things. Yeah. That happens every game. The reality is mediocre (or worse) starting pitchers often get battered early on, and someone has to bridge the gap between, say, the third inning and the seventh inning. That's why a typical bullpen has six or seven available pitchers, and from a fantasy perspective the roles of the bullpen pitchers can be endlessly adapting and evolving. Today's closer can be tomorrow's fourth-inning mop-up guy, while last week's unheralded arm could be working in a key set-up role next week. With relief pitching, it's almost always a "what have you done for me lately" game. A few solid outings could see a pitcher entrusted with more and more high-leverage innings, while conversely, a few shaky outings could see hold and save chances virtually disappear – at least for a while. Interestingly, the ninth inning is very often the last role to change.

Closers almost always (wherever possible) have high strikeout rates, relatively good command, and they normally have two other characteristics that can be more difficult to define. They need to be comfortable pitching at least two or three days in a row (whenever a save chance arises), and a huge factor – they must be able to, overnight, forget a bad outing. Every pitcher, even the best, have bad days, and to succeed, a closer has to be ready mentally to compete tomorrow. That's just a brief overview of identifying future closers, but let's take a look at some closer assignments in the NL and see where they may be headed:

Here are some NL bullpen scenarios to keep an eye on:

• Cincinnati Reds – Depending on the resource you use, the Reds have three or four pitchers listed as their closers. It's true. On any given day the team might deploy a different pitcher – or pitchers – in the ninth inning. That's frustrating for fantasy owners, but for the Reds, it has been pretty much a necessity brought on by inconsistency. They have one reliever with fairly extensive closing experience in Sean Doolittle. However, at this stage of his career, Doolittle, who relies almost exclusively on a good fastball with pinpoint, location is probably better suited for matchup work in a set-up role. Lucas Sims has pretty good stuff with inconsistent command. He's not bad, but I think they can do better. Recently, Tejay Antone has been working his way into more high-leverage innings. I like his stuff, but I also like the versatility he offers as a pitcher they can use in various situations, including multiple innings stints. He looks like a good source of holds. That leaves Amir Garrett. He probably has the best stuff, and I think he is a lukewarm choice to end up the primary guy, but he still needs to prove he has the right frame of mind to finish things off night after night.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Today, the Diamondbacks have just one pitcher listed as their closer, but it's not because they have found that lockdown guy to handle the ninth inning. Stefan Crichton has generally done an adequate job, but he's better suited to a set-up role. Unfortunately, the team has yet to uncover his replacement. They have an experienced closer in Joakim Soria. He gets sentimental points for having contributed to several league championships for me, but injuries and mileage have taken their toll on him. Kevin Ginkel has occasionally flashed some upside, but the flashes have been fewer and farther between of late. He's probably about out of chances to prove himself. Perhaps the best option to eventually claim the job is currently unavailable. I really like J.B. Bukauskas since Arizona converted him to a fulltime relief pitcher. He had a brief look earlier this year but struggled, and eventually landed on the injured list with a flexor strain. He's a guy to keep an eye on once he's healthy. For now though, Crichton is probably the best bet for saves in the dessert.
• Philadelphia Phillies – This scenario makes me crazy. Today, emphasis on today, Hector Neris is the Phillies' primary closer, but there always seems to be storm clouds in the distance with Neris. I like his stuff. There is no question he has the raw stuff to be a successful endgamer, but he can be prone to extended stretches of ineffectiveness. Neris seems to be one of those guys with the bane of closers – a long memory. Every pitcher has an occasional bad day, but the good closers forget the bad immediately. Hopefully Neris is learning to do that. They do have a couple options if Neris should slip into a funk in right-hander Archie Bradley and southpaw Jose Alvarado, but in a perfect world, that pair would fill the set-up role for a consistently effective Neris. The Phillies will miss one of their most promising relievers this year. Seranthony Dominguez would be a big boost to the pen, but he is recovering from Tommy John surgery and won't be back until September, if he pitches at all this season.
• St. Louis Cardinals – At first glance the Cardinals bullpen appears to be fairly stable. Alex Reyes is 14-for-14 in save chances and sports a pristine 0.69 ERA while their cast of set-up guys has performed pretty well. That said, there are reasons to wonder what might be ahead. Reyes can certainly be hard to hit, but he has doled out 23 free passes in 26 innings. That should make owners extremely nervous. Unfortunately, the heir apparent – and deservedly so – Jordan Hicks, is back on the injured list with a balky elbow. Best-case scenario he won't be back until mid-July or August, so Reyes needs to hold things together at least that long. They do hope to get Andrew Miller back soon, and he should step in as a primary set-up guy and could even see an occasional save chance. They will likely continue to play matchups on most days with a deep cast of characters including Giovanny Gallegos, Genesis Cabrera and Ryan Helsley. Plus, a fully healthy rotation would allow John Gant to return to a long relief role, a job he is well-suited to fill. Hicks is the key. He has the toolbox to be an elite closer if they can just get him healthy and into rhythm. If all the pieces fall into place, this bullpen becomes a major strength of the team.
• Washington Nationals – Brad Hand led the American League in saves in an abbreviated 2020 season. He has logged seven saves this year with a modest 3.63 ERA, mostly because he was scored upon in five of six appearances earlier this month. Still, his job is, or should be, relatively secure. That said, have you ever watched a closer enter a game, throw two or three pitches, and then you immediately think to yourself, this game is over. I have never really gotten that feeling from Hand. Maybe that's why he changes uniforms a bit more than you might expect? I'm not really predicting a downfall here. Hand will probably weather any storms. He has been doing it for several seasons now. I'm just saying I would feel far less skittish if I owned both Hand and Daniel Hudson. In a holds league, Hudson is gold. He gets the ball in the eighth inning of almost every game the Nationals play where they hold a late lead. He'd be even more valuable if they could get there with a lead more often, but the rest of the bullpen is pretty shaky. They really need their starting pitchers to get as deep as possible into games. So, let's just say I would be happy to see Hand reverse roles with Hudson. It probably won't happen, but you never know.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Making his first start following his no-hitter, Corey Kluber lasted just three innings before departing with a "tight" shoulder. I like him. He always lives on the black. Kluber was really getting into a groove. He has been diagnosed with a strain and will be shut down for a month, but shoulders are very unpredictable.
• San Diego's Blake Snell has to be high on the list of frustrations for fantasy owners. His stuff can be nearly unhittable, but his command comes and goes, sometimes from inning to inning. It often seems like hitters just take as many pitches as possible ignoring his breaking stuff as his pitch count soars.
• Wednesday was to be the much-anticipated debut of one of the Blue Jays' prized pitching prospects, Alek Manoah. I had the popcorn made, a fresh pitcher of iced tea, and I was ready to go. Then it rained. Just a one day delay. It should be a great watch, just remember not to get too high or too low based on a first start.
• He's baccck. Jacob deGrom returned from the injured list and pitched five innings in his first start back. He allowed a solo home run in the first inning but was pretty much himself after that, allowing just two other hits while striking out nine. His free and easy delivery remains the standard for pitching excellence.
• Both Julio Urias (seventh inning) and Lance Lynn (sixth inning) carried no-hitters fairly deep into games earlier this week. Both were broken up, but with the current swing at anything approach being used by hitters, I'd be willing to bet we see more no-hitters over the course of the season. Maybe many more.

Endgame Odyssey:

I remain steadfast in my belief that Jordan Romano will end up Toronto's primary closer. His stuff is electric, and if his owner is tired of waiting, he might be worth pursuing. With Kendall Graveman on the COVID IL, Keynan Middleton could get a pretty good audition as a closer option in Seattle. He has the stuff to be successful, and if he throws enough strikes, the Mariners might consider him for closing duties, freeing up Graveman for a more versatile role. In Cleveland, Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak appear to be in a timeshare right now. I prefer Clase, but that's personal preference, as they are hard to separate these days. The Rays are well known as a bullpen-focused team, and their relievers have already collected 19 wins. Unfortunately, it's difficult to predict who will be next in line for a win, and it won't get any easier. They recently traded for Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen to bolster an overworked pen. That's the price they pay for such heavy reliance, so expect more acquisitions in the future.