The Z Files: Memorial Day Weekend Thoughts

I was bouncing a few ideas around for this week's missive, but nothing seemed meaty enough for a standalone topic. No problem, I'll just touch on each and call it a column.

NFBC Memorial Day Online Championship

After debuting in 2019, this is the is the second year the NFBC is running the second-chance format. In full disclosure, I will not be participating, but that hasn't stopped me from thinking about it. The format is the same as the Main Event with individual 15-team leagues lumped together for the overall championship.

There is a lot of strategy being discussed on Twitter, with drafting pitchers to the extreme the most popular narrative. Some suggest going the other way and pounding bats early. While I fancy myself a thinker, my gut feels like both sides are overdoing it. If I were putting together a squad, balance would still be key. Regardless of what happens with injuries over the next four months, I'll be shocked if a team with an extreme approach takes down the overall.

For fun, here is my first round, with some commentary. It's important to note I would treat this draft as "trying to win the whole thing" as opposed to winning my league and seeing what happens. The lower entry fee than the Main Event drives that philosophy. It doesn't change much, other than a greater willingness to draft a steals guy early, something I wouldn't normally do.

1.01 Fernando Tatis: Ignoring the potential for injury on Tatis while penalizing a certain pitcher may seem contradictory, and it probably is. That said, I'm still of the mind to bully hitting and manage pitching, regardless of what has happened over the first two months.

1.02 Ronald Acuna: Honestly, Tatis and Acuna are a coin flip. Not to mention, if I was on the clock with the first pick for real, I could flip-flop. It's probably a matter of whether you'd prefer to start your team with a shortstop or outfielder.

1.03 Jose Ramirez: Consistent, productive and reliable, Ramirez isn't a sexy pick. He is, however, a winning pick.

1.04 Trea Turner: Turner and Tatis are the only players with double-digit homers and steals so far.

1.05 Gerrit Cole: The Yankees ace will likely land atop the ADP list. Something just struck me. Maybe this is overthinking, but if pitching dominates the first two rounds like I suspect, hitters will be pushed down to the point taking Cole first, then double-tapping bats, could crush.

1.06 Mookie Betts: Betts isn't blaming injuries on his slow start, but what is he supposed to say? I'm still a believer, he's been too good for too long.

1.07 Juan Soto: Exit velocity is down a tad, but Soto should regain form sooner rather than later. His style should benefit from the reduced flight ball as his lofted hits are more line drives than majestic rainbows.

1.08 Xander Bogaerts: Before scoffing and calling me a Red Sox homer, check out what he's done since 2018 and factor in he's running more.

1.09 Jacob deGrom: In full disclosure, deGrom is my current rest-of-season earnings leader. So why the drop? It's probably irrational, but fear of injury, despite him recently returning from a non-arm ailment. I know, if that's how I feel, I should probably dock him a start or two, but the problem there is the Mets have more games left so deGrom could also pick up an extra start or two if the Mets keep him on four days' rest.

1.10 Freddie Freeman: Like Soto, Freeman is more of a line drive hitter, so he benefits from the added exit velocity of the 2021 ball without being hampered by having arcing flies lose distance.

1.11 Tim Anderson:  Would I take Anderson at this spot? No way, but that doesn't mean I don't think he's worthy. In fact, being able to snag Anderson several rounds later could tip the scales in Acuna's favor for the top overall spot.

1.12 Trevor Story: This comes with a caveat as Story was lifted from the nightcap of Thursday's twin bill with right arm soreness. If it's reported he'll miss time, the next three move up one with Bo Bichette sliding into 1.15. The 12th spot already reflects the possibility Story is traded, as he'd be a top-10 pick if it were assured he would remain in Colorado.

1.13 Adalberto Mondesi: Mondesi has a legit chance to give the field almost two months head start and still lead the league in steals. Grab a pitcher next, then pound power bats for a bit.

1.14 Trevor Bauer: Numbers are a little luck-driven, but skills and spin rate remain elite. So long as that's the case, his durability warrants a pick around the wheel.

1.15 Whit Merrifield: Merrifield is another example of someone I peg to deliver first-round production, but it won't require this level of draft capitol.

Taking Stock over Memorial Day Weekend

Gratuitous plug alert, as this is the topic for this week's Tout Table: Memorial Day Weekend is considered by many to be the first checkpoint of the season. What do you do to take stock of with your team(s) now that we're about two months into the season?

Granted, as some of the Touts are quick to point out, attention should be paid all season. That said, there are two reasons to spend some time this weekend looking over your rosters.

The first is narrative. For whatever reason, Memorial Day weekend is when many of your competitors take stock of their teams, perhaps contacting you about a deal. It helps to have already dissected your squad to facilitate constructive negotiations. This is especially true in keeper leagues, as some use Memorial Day Weekend as the benchmark when deciding to compete or rebuild.

The other reason is based on math. We're at the point where standings are realistic. That is, the top-to-bottom spread in the ratio categories is close to what it will be come season's end. Teams will obviously switch place in the standings, but the best and worst ratios are close to what they'll be at the finish line. Similarly, prorating the counting categories renders totals near what they'll be when all is said and done.

The repercussion is judging where you can most efficiently make up ground is more practical than when the distributions were wider. Obviously, around four months remain and a lot can happen, but now is the time to begin to address category deficiencies.

Trade Evaluation

The manner I handle trade questions does not curry favor with readers. I'm sorry folks, but there isn't a black box where you enter the trade, and it tells you "who wins." There is so much more to it than that.

A trade is about your roster's potential to garner more points after the deal. Analysis entails considering the total roster makeup, incorporating players to replace those dealt away along with the level of upgrade. Whether you can get more for the players you are trading needs to be contemplated. Is there a pathway for improvement that doesn't involve a trade? Again, I apologize, but it's your team, hence your call. I am more than happy to help you work through the deal and offer my evaluation on the principals, but I won't be rendering a decision on who wins.

Enjoy the long weekend folks.