This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 4-0, +4.00 units
Overall: 31-9, +15.39 units
I just have to say that I never expected to be 31-9 two months into the baseball season. There is definitely a hot streak going, but I also think I have developed a system of finding value in the baseball lines by looking at alternatives.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks, 2:10 p.m. EDT
It is not often you get a pitcher like Corbin Burnes with value, but I believe we do here at a 7.5 strikeout prop, as he is coming off two starts with seven strikeouts in each.
Burnes is a heavy home favorite (-245) with a reasonable total of 8, and I have him at nine strikeouts Sunday. I can see the Brewers letting him go a little deeper in the game as they should be working with a decent lead.
The Diamondbacks have tanked in the last 30 days, going 5-25 overall, and just 2-18 in their last 20. While the Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 and 12-8 in their last 20. The Brewers have won three in a row against the Dbacks, outscoring them 19-10.
This is the way to bet a heavy favorite like Burnes but without having to pay the monster juice of -245.
BET: Milwaukee -1.5 runs 1st 5 innings (+105) for 1 RWBuck
BET: Burnes over 7.5 strikeouts (-135) for 1.25 RWBucks
BET: Milwaukee over 4.5 runs (-120) for 1.25 RWBucks
Rays at Rangers, 2:35 p.m.
Michael Wacha vs. Dane Dunning
I do not give out many straight moneyline picks, but I have been on the Rays most of May and now June. If oddsmakers continue to undervalue the Rays, it makes sense to take the value. The Rays are a top-5 team in baseball while the Rangers are a bottom-5 team. There is no home-field advantage here. My numbers place the Rays as a -160 to -180 favorite.
The Rays are 22-3 in their last 25 road game and 17-4 straight up in their last 21, while the Rangers are 1-9 in their last 10.
BET: Rays -126 to win the game for 1.25 RWBucks
