Bernie on the Scene: Tracking Baseball’s Basic Agreement Negotiations

The Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) between MLB and the MLB Players Association, signed in 2017, is set to expire December 1, 2021.

There are serious roadblocks, speed bumps and issues to be resolved before baseball peace can be declared.

It is a fact of life that without a renewal of the current agreement or a total restructuring and signing of a new agreement, Major League Baseball as we know it could come to a halt.

Call me Captain Obvious. Of course, without a basic agreement, even the best fantasy baseball teams on the planet will be rendered useless. The CBA should be on the mind of every baseball player and every fantasy baseball player on the planet.

I want to share with you what I have heard from reliable industry sources regarding negotiations and priorities of both sides in the ongoing negotiations. 

Of course, the clock is ticking. Deals usually get done at the last minute, so look for December to deliver great holiday gifts to fans or lumps of black coal that are spread about through failure of two sides to agree on a path forward. 

Logic may not prevail. Common sense may not prevail. Money will prevail. Money will always prevail in baseball — and most sports. Specifically, which side of the issues gets their priorities regarding money will dictate how the CBA shakes out.

I will elaborate on each point from reliable sources who have insight into the negotiations. I wish to advise that what you read here may or may not be true. Without being inside the meeting rooms, we have no way to varify the points below.  

Neither side has gone public yet with their respective agenda.

Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred is a labor negotiator. That is how he made his living, and that is how he earned his reputation. The owners have relied upon Manfred in previous CBA agreements, and they are in this one as well.

Manfed is the Commissioner of the owners. Contrary to popular belief, Manfred no longer enjoys veto power over anything in baseball. Once called the "good of the game" authority, Manfred is not able to unilaterally dictate policy as Bowie Kuhn may have. Everything must be collectively bargained or agreed upon by the CBA.

Another way to look at this — If it isn't in writing, it isn't happening. 

1. MLB doesn't believe anything should change in the basic agreement. They would be happy to extend the current agreement and kick things down the road. They want things to settle down after the pandemic and not worry about rocking the boat. Their feeling is that, after all, we're just getting back to normal. The players will have none of that.

If there is a true stalemate and there's no progress, maybe the current agreement will be extended while the two sides continue to talk. I can see that happening, but only if progress is being made.

2. The Players Association wants a share of all gambling-related advertising dollars. That is huge. That's what this entire negotiation will swing on.

Gambling dollars are said to be the savior of professional sports. More states are legalizing gambling. More ads will pop up on all MLB platforms and on their billboards. The players want some of that ad money.

Fans and gamblers will be able to bet on gimmicks from their seats in the stands and on every device. Gambling on baseball, like gambling on all sports, is ready to go through the roof.

I have a hard time seeing MLB turning their backs and shutting down a season (locking out the players) with that gambling revenue staring the owners in the face.

3. The Players Association wants its share of every dollar generated by MLB. Every dollar. And that includes equity money when an owner sells a club.

That will be a tough pill to swallow for ownership. And the equity money might be the first of the revenue buckets that will be negotiated away by the owners. They aren't giving up their cash cow at the point of franchise sales. They'll have no part of that.

4. Players want their younger players to make more money and not have to deal with service time issues. The owners want service time to remain in order to keep salaries down.

The players want a better free agency system that values veterans and doesn't shut them out. The players claim veteran players work all their career to achieve free agency, and then they get shut out by colluding owners.

5. Owners want expanded playoffs to generate more TV and other means of revenue. Players may give them that in exchange for the universal DH, something that will help their veteran players stick around longer.

6. Owners want the draft reduced to five rounds. That will eliminate them from having to pay players who don't have a chance of making the big leagues. Owners claim they spend millions of dollars developing players who only reach the minor leagues.

Remember — the owners have already reduced the minor leagues by more than 40 teams. That without resistance from the Players Association.

Unless they begin a Minor League Players Association, players won't fight the draft round reduction. After all, major league players join their association regardless of when they are picked and how long it takes them to make the big leagues. 

7. Rules changes such as the DH, number of innings for doubleheaders, man on second in tied games, etc., are the easiest issues to negotiate. They will be give and take, with most agreements being easily resoved.

Conclusions:

In the end, it is money, and how that money is divided, that will dictate the new CBA.

And remember, some in Congress are threatening to eliminate every MLB labor exemption. Some wish to punish Manfred and MLB for moving the All Star Game out of Atlanta. Some want to punish MLB for closing down minor league clubs in their home districts and states.

Owners live under very friendly tax and labor laws that enhance their revenue. Some in Congress are looking to eliminate those exemptions.

The entire flap about sticky, illegal substances in baseball has sure taken the spotlight off and away from the contract negotiations. Is that by design? I think so.

Heading Home:

There is a quiet movement to punish teams that "tank" their seasons to get draft picks and those teams that spend just enough money to field a team. In essence, people are getting fed up with the disparity in baseball.

Solution? Some have suggested that a team must win X amount of games to qualify for revenue-sharing money. That might motivate some owners. Revenue sharing is huge.

Or, maybe a team must spend X amount on payroll to gain revenue sharing money.

Regardless of the method of getting there, there is a movement to punish those who are perpetuating the disparity of success in the sport.

———

I watched Shohei Ohtani this past weekend when the Angels played the Diamondbacks. I haven't seen as exciting a player in several aspects of the game since I first scouted Ichiro.

Yes, Ronald Acuna is amazing. Mike Trout is amazing. Powerful sluggers are great to watch. But Ohtani is electric. He sizzles. His bat is lethal. He runs like a sprinter. He can pitch. Not a star pitcher, but pretty darn good.

———

Trevor Bauer had his second bad outing since the issue of pitchers using foreign substances first broke. I think the problem is "sticking" with Bauer. It is now in his head as well as on his hand.

———

Thanks for following me on twitter and for reading my articles at Forbes.com.