This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 0-2, (2 rainouts), -2.05 RWBucks
Overall: 55-41, +6.62 RWBucks
Eight units in profit gone in about two weeks, but I was running at 65-70 percent straight up and knew it couldn't last forever. Hopefully, we can get right on this last slate before the All-Star break.
White Sox at Orioles, 1:05 p.m. EDT
Dylan Cease vs. Spenser Watkins
The White Sox opened as a -165 favorite against the Orioles with a total of 10.5. This is the perfect scenario for a run-line play as we have a huge road favorite with a big total. The 1.5 runs on a 10.5 total game is only 14 percent of the total vs. 1.5 runs on a 8.5 total, which is is 17.5 percent.
The White Sox are 20-11 straight up as road favorites with a margin of victory of 2.1 (second best in baseball) whereas the Orioles are 12-25 as home underdogs with a margin of victory of -2.1. There is a huge disparity in the starting pitchers with Dylan Cease projecting as a top-five starter Sunday and Spenser Watkins in the bottom three. The White Sox have outscored the Orioles 30-8 in five games this year.
BET: White Sox -2.5 runs (+125) for 1 RWbuck
BET: Orioles under 3.5 runs (+140) for 1 RWbuck
Marlins vs. Braves, 1:10 p.m. EDT
The Braves are coming off a game in which they saw their superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. go down with a severe leg injury. I have to think it will have an impact, especially in the game Sunday afternoon. The Braves' lineup is significantly weaker now, and Lopez has pitched incredible in his last seven starts with 43 strikeouts and just five walks in 32 innings. I am looking at the first five innings because I think this will be a low-scoring game, but the Marlins should have the lead after five innings. The Marlins actually have a winning record at home this year at 21-20.
BET: Marlins -0.5 runs F5 (+120) for 1 RWBuck
Astros vs. Yankees, 2:10 p.m. EDT
Framber Valdez vs. Jameson Taillon
The Astros are laying -140 at home against the Yankees, which is about -20 to -30 too low based on my power ratings. Valdez has pitched great this year, going 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA, 47 strikeouts to 16 walks. He did get roughed up in his last start against Oakland, but I think that is why the price is low. Also, there has been a bias by oddsmakers all year who just refuse to price the Yankees according to their results instead of the public bias. Jameson has a ERA north of 5.00 and the Astros feast on right-handed pitching (32-19 overall; 17-11 at home; 5.7 runs per game).
BET: Astros -1.5 runs (+125) for 1 RWBuck
BET: Astros over 4.5 runs (-110) for 1 RWBuck
