This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article: 4-0, 4.28 RW Bucks
Season: 41-37-4, +1.88 RW Bucks
After finally getting into the black (and back over .500) for the season last time out, I'll try to keep the hot streak going with a few wagers on a couple intriguing matchups during a typically busy MLB Saturday.
Tigers at Royals, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Casey Mize vs. Carlos Hernandez
The Pick: Tigers +120 (William Hill Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Tigers over 2.5 runs in first 5 innings (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Mize got belted by the Royals in his fourth start of the season, giving up six earned runs in 4.2 innings. He's subsequently faced KC on three occasions and consistently frustrated Royals bats, firing three quality starts totaling 19 innings, with two coming at Kauffman Stadium. Mize has been better on the road overall this season with a 3.26 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 60.2 innings. Mike Matheny's squad has also been one of the most non-threatening to visiting righties in baseball the last month, posting an anemic .101 ISO, -6.1 wRAA and .287 wOBA in that split.
Hernandez opened the season as a reliever and hasn't gone more than four innings in any outing, so the Royals bullpen figures to likely have a prominent role in this game. That could certainly be good news for Tigers hitters, considering KC relievers own a 6.57 ERA, .279 BAA and .362 wOBA in July. Hernandez does have a good power pitching arsenal and does a good job keeping the ball in the park, but he still has a 4.91 ERA and elevated 1.60 WHIP.
Blue Jays at Mets, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Hyun Jin Ryu vs. Taijuan Walker
The Pick: Under 9.0 runs (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Mets +105 (UniBet Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Ryu is putting together another good season and is coming off a seven-inning blanking of the Rangers, though it was less than a month ago when he gave up a combined nine runs (eight earned) in 10.2 innings in back-to-back starts against the Orioles and Mariners. The veteran lefty has his highest HR/9 (1.2) since 2017 and has seen a big drop in strikeout rate (19.9 percent, down from 2020's 27.5 percent), with the extra contact sometimes leading to crooked stat lines. The Mets have the ability to potentially capitalize, considering their .344 wOBA and .780 OPS against lefties at home in July.
Walker is coming off his worst outing of an otherwise fine season, as he lasted just one-third of an inning against the Pirates and was involved in a memorable foul ball that wasn't, which resulted in Pittsburgh plating three runs against him on one play. However, considering he's allowed more than three earned runs in only one of his other 16 starts, the meltdown can be considered an outlier. Walker does have to face a formidable Jays lineup, but he gets the advantage of the DH being removed from the equation. It's also worth noting Walker has experience with two of Toronto's most dangerous hitters from his AL days, and it's been mostly favorable — George Springer and Marcus Semien have hit a combined .235 with two doubles, just one homer and 12 strikeouts in 36 total encounters with Walker.
