The Z Files: Dissection of an Early Draft, Part Two

Earlier this week, Dissection of an Early Draft, Part One was posted. Here is the exciting conclusion. Sorry, I guess I've been watching too many two-part episodes of the Six Million Dollar Man.

By means of a quick reminder, I co-manage this team with a guy who has a bionic voice, Derek VanRiper. I'll do my best to minimize "We took him because he's good at baseball"-level analysis and focus on some of the behind the scenes build-up to each pick.

13.191 Triston McKenzie

As was discussed last time, we were full throttle in the "get your guy" portion of the draft. We had both been mentioning McKenzie for a few rounds. Our starters to this point are Corbin Burnes, Logan Webb, Shane McClanahan and Logan Gilbert, so we're taking on significant risk in terms of lacking a foundation with a track record. Even with Burnes, it can be argued he hasn't proven he's worthy of a first round pick. Shown? Yes, but not proven, there's a difference.

Even so, I could tell DVR was intrigued with McKenzie, as am I. We're not concerned about the perceived durability issues since he's such a thin guy. Cleveland has a knack for managing their arms to maximize production. The exchange went a little something like this:

Todd Zola, Oct 7, 3:08 PM

I think we're close to, if not in "if we like McKenzie, we better get McKenzie" territory.

Derek VanRiper, Oct 7, 3:44 PM

Love it

14.200 Andrew Vaughn

This was the first of a string of picks with the same theme: not assured of regular playing time, but we like the upside if it transpires. A bunch of bats were tabled, including Michael Conforto, Vaughn, Austin Hays, Ian Happ, Anthony Santander, Ramon Laureano, Trevor Larnach, Andrew Benintendi and… Marcell Ozuna.

I wasn't especially interested in Ozuna but felt we should at least get it out there. DVR expressed serious concern with the legal issues, so that was the last time he came up.

DVR had been mentioning Conforto for several rounds, and while I have no issues with the player, I thought it had been too early. However, he was in play now that we're at pick 200. My co-manager pointed out Vaughn was mostly good but had a couple of down streaks which triggered a thought. One of my pet analyses is seeing whether exit velocity on fly balls correlates to a player's home run output. Especially playing half the time in Guaranteed Rate Park, it appears Vaughn was short-changed a few long balls. Statcast's xHR is less convincing (15.3 with 15 actual HR), but I still like the upside.

15.221 Jesus Sanchez

Conforto, Hays, Benintendi and Happ all left the board before this pick. The Conforto snipe hit hard since it was obvious DVR likes him (but he did elect Vaughn as the primary choice last time).

We didn't *need* an outfielder here, but it made the most sense. Up for discussion were Sanchez, Santander, Brandon Nimmo, Brandon Marsh, Hunter Dozier, Harrison Bader and Jo Adell. Of those names, Derek expressed the most interest in Sanchez, Adell and Nimmo. He also said he had some work to do, so I can take who I wanted. I said my lean was Sanchez, to which he replied he liked the way Sanchez finished the season and he should have the job, so I got The Athletic seal of approval.

16.230 Adley Rutschman

Several rounds ago, we talked a bit on how to approach the second catcher. DVR thinks Rutschman will get a reasonably early callup and I think he's going to hit well enough to be an asset, so in my head, I decided to sign off whenever Derek brought him back up. We talked and agreed we'd need to grab a third backstop pretty early, but it wasn't a roadblock at all.

That said, we did consider going pitching, but agreed it wasn't worth throwing a dart at a closer, and when we started suggesting starters, two things were clear. There were a ton of names piquing interest and we sensed some would drop a few rounds, so we grabbed the rookie receiver.

You don't think I'm going to leave you hanging on the arms, do you? Eduardo Rodriguez, Jesus Luzardo, Zach Plesac, Luis Patino, Drew Rasmussen, Yusei Kikuchi, Zack Greinke, Josiah Gray, Stephen Strasburg, Aaron Civale, Dane Dunning and Matt Manning were all put out there. Derek favored Strasburg while I leaned Kikuchi but wanted to wait, since his September swoon could drop his market price.

17.251 Mike Moustakas

Only E-Rod and Josiah Gray were taken from the list, so we were comfortable pushing pitching another round, especially since it was the shorter turnaround. DVR asked:

Derek VanRiper, Oct 9, 11:31 AM

How are you feeling about a Moustakas bounce-back?

He never seemed healthy this year

I think he was projected as a .250 35-90-90 guy

Todd Zola, Oct 9, 11:34 AM

like the player, need to think through the playing time, though he's being paid regular money

India is set

Suarez and Moustakas both locked in long term -- not HUGE money, but still

NL DH solves everything!

though CIN has several of those

Yeah, I G-chat in terse phrases. Ultimately, we concluded the best approach was grabbing Moose then coming back with Kikuchi or Strasburg. Strasburg worries me, especially with the risk already inherent in our staff, so I was happy DVR listed Kikuchi first.

18.260 Yusei Kikuchi

Me was happy. I'll occasionally use terse phrases in more formal writing, too.

Since we had presented Kikuchi or Strasburg for this round, we spent time between picks looking at the team as a whole, since we were approaching the endgame and reserves. I pointed out we were woefully devoid of multiple-eligibility players, which some like to target. I'll be writing more on this, but I'm less concerned with MEPS in this format than something like a Draft and Hold or Best Ball. Still, some flexibility would be nice.

To that end, DVR surveyed the available player list and suggested Andres Gimenez, Garrett Hampson, Enrique Hernandez and Connor Joe. He made the point he wasn't suggesting to take one next, just these were some guys to keep in mind.

This makes for another excellent lesson. Even when drafting alone, use down time (time not specifically spent contemplating players) to get a better big-picture feel. This is especially true in drafts with a multi-hour clock, as it could expedite your next selections. Assuming the room allows (and I'm obviously not the only one to do this), I'll throw Gimenez, Hampson, Hernandez and Joe in the queue, or pre-draft area.

19.281 Gavin Lux

While we were ruminating on MEP guys, I tossed a trail balloon out there.

Todd Zola, Oct 9, 1:50 PM

Gavin Lux?

Derek VanRiper, Oct 9, 1:50 PM

surprised he's still out there

I'm a believer

Could be their new Chris Taylor if Taylor leaves in FA

Bullseye! That's what I was hoping for. Circling back to exit velocity on fly balls and similar analysis, Lux's home stretch caught my eye, and DVR outlined several pathways to playing time. The downside is that playing time isn't assured, giving us another batter of that ilk.

Even so, like any properly managed team, we did our due diligence and scanned the inventory to make sure we didn't miss anyone. Not to mention, it was getting close to the time I was headed to Arizona for the First Pitch conference, at which point I'd hand the reins to my more than capable co-manager. The more names we discussed before I left, the better.

We had already gone over Nimmo, Marsh, Adell, Urshela and Hernandez. Tommy Pham, Hunter Dozier, Bryan De La Cruz, Gio Urshela, Michael Brantley, Jeff McNeil, Carlos Santana, Colin Moran, Brandon Belt and Keston Hiura entered the chat. With the note Pham and Nimmo were also intriguing, we clicked on Lux.

20.290 Tommy Pham

Having reviewed so many hitters already, this was easy as we both wanted more speed. Granted, it's risky relying a guy on the other side of 30 years old with an injury history, but Pham continues to run. The question, of course, is playing time. C'mon universal DH!

21.311 Luis Patino

Time to float back to the arms and start pegging the guys we expected to fall to this range, but not before at least pondering the third catcher. With Austin Nola, Omar Narvaez, Alejandro Kirk, Carson Kelly and Sean Murphy available, it was clear we could wait.

I knew Derek really wanted to go Patino, but this was not a concession pick. So did I! He was easily ahead of Chris Paddack, Nick Pivetta and Edward Cabrera, the others on my list at the time.

22.320 Chris Paddack 

I was admittedly surprised, but pleasantly so, when Derek asked if I was on board with Paddack next. He was only our eighth pitcher. That said, with no closers, he's essentially SP8. Most others are taking their SP6 and SP7 in this range, since they likely have at least two relievers.

23.341 Brandon Nimmo

The rest of these thumbnails will brief since they involve players we already discussed, or were made with Derek at the helm while I was cavorting in Arizona.

One or the other of us brought up Nimmo each of the previous five rounds or so, always settling on someone else. It was time to finally take the plunge. Nimmo fits the risky mode. Sometimes it's best to steer into the skid.

24.350 Alejandro Kirk

Looking at the available catchers and the number of teams with an opening, now was the time to get someone to keep the spot warm until Rutschman's promotion. You can do worse than getting a piece of the Blue Jays juggernaut at this spot.

As an aside, in Part One, I mentioned some after-the-fact buyer's remorse on Grandal in the 10th. Again, in a vacuum it was (and still is) fine. With my hindsight glasses on, Kirk in the 24th with Kelly and Murphy available in the 22nd would have been just fine as a late catching combo. 

25.371 Keston Hiura

Upside and the likelihood of the universal DH drove this pick. Derek and I both look at numbers, but we also concurred Hiura could have been affected by his mother's health woes.

26.380 Bryan De La Cruz

You know how in Draft Day, General Manager Sonny Weaver, played by Kevin Costner, revealed a note saying, "Vontae Mack No Matter What"? Well, it wasn't quite that dramatic, but Derek knew I liked De La Cruz as a late dart.

Thanks partner.

27.401 Jordan Hicks

DVR made this pick while I was watching Hicks get lit up in the AFL. He started, and there were some mumblings the Cardinals could look to transition the fireballer back to the rotation. They were unconfirmed at the time, so after texting, we decided to throw our first closer dart.

28.410 Devin Williams

OK, what if Josh Hader is traded and Williams refrains from celebratory wall punches? DVR's a freaking genius, that's what. If not, we still have a useful arm in this format, especially with so many risky starters.

29.431 Tyler Wells

Hey, speculative closers were thin and Wells showed something down the stretch, so why not?

30.440 Andrew Heaney

After making the pick, DVR sent me

Derek VanRiper, Oct 16, 3:00 PM

Andrew Heaney - Robbie Ray of 2022 but with homer improvement instead of walks.

Earlier this week, our friend and colleague Jason Collette posted Collette Calls: Who Can Be the 2022 Robbie Ray?

Spoiler alert: It's Andrew Heaney.

Works for me!

Team by Positions

• C: Grandal, Kirk, Rutschman
• CI: Mancini. Bregman, Moustakas, Hiura
• MI: Altuve, Bogaerts, Adames, Lux
• OF: Mullins, Alvarez, Vaughn, Sanchez, Pham, Nimmo, De La Cruz
• SP: Burnes, Webb, McClanahan, Gilbert, McKenzie, Kikuchi, Patino, Paddack, Heaney
• RP: Hicks, Williams, Wells

Appraisal

As stated in Part One, I would not have left the draft with this team without DVR at my side. That said, I'm excited to see what we can do. A winning foundation is in place, but there's work to be done.

1. We need saves. We don't need to win the category, but even in a standalone, it's tough to 'ship the league with just one point in the category.
2. There isn't much flexibility, but I'm not worried about it. It's a FAAB league so we won't go more than half a week short at a position (NFBC has Friday changes for batters) and we'll make sure we have all the spots covered. Having to carry a third catcher is an impediment, but we'll make it work.
3. There is a perceived shortage of hitting counting stats. Any draft standings tracker would have us near the bottom. The reason is so many batters taken in the 11-20 range have playing time concerns. The post-draft standings don't capture the moves we'll make to keep playing time where it needs to be.
4. We have risky pitching, from top to bottom. As the saying goes, I view that as a feature, not a bug. We don't need all nine risks to come through. If more than half do as we hope, we'll be fine. I like our chances.

Thanks for your indulgence. Hopefully this was a bit different than they standard boiler plate draft review. I'm happy to answer any questions, with the exception of other teams' picks. We're given permission to wax poetic on our own club, but that's it. Well, we publicly post the first six rounds, so I'm happy to share that here.