Yusei Kikuchi

32-Year-Old PitcherSP

Toronto Blue Jays

2024 Stats

W-L

1-1

ERA

2.08

WHIP

1.15

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Kikuchi enjoyed a career year in 2023 and finished with a 3.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 181:48 K:BB over 167.2 innings. He nearly cut his walk rate in half to 6.9 percent and had a solid 25.9 percent strikeout rate. A 3.77 xFIP also indicates his results were mostly earned, though a 42.4 percent hard-hit rate and 1.45 HR/9 were both bottom-10 among qualified starters despite being significant improvements from his 2022 marks. The left-hander, who will turn 33 years old in June, continues to average about 95 mph with his fastball and still generates plenty of whiffs, but those swing-and-misses have never really translated to equitable run prevention. Kikuchi's 2023 numbers certainly weren't a fluke, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be able to replicate them. A regression in 2024 shouldn't be the expectation but certainly wouldn't be surprising given the 5.02 ERA across his first four MLB seasons after coming over from Japan. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#238

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'0"

Weight 200

DOB 6/17/1991

Born Morioka, Japan

College None

Drafted 2019 SEA

Sharp in Tuesday's win

PToronto Blue Jays

April 17, 2024

Kikuchi (1-1) picked up the win Tuesday in a 5-4 victory over the Yankees, allowing one run on four hits and a walk over six innings. He struck out nine.

ANALYSIS
The left-hander struck out Anthony Volpe, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge in the top of the first inning, setting the tone for a dominant performance. Kikuchi fired 62 of 94 strikes as he recorded his second straight quality start, and he fanned nine in each of those outings. He'll take a 2.08 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 29:8 K:BB through 21.2 innings into his next start, which lines up to come early next week in Kansas City.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Yusei Kikuchi generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Yusei Kikuchi generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-22%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-26%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-20%

BAA vs LHP

2022

-23%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.204	258	68	17	48	8	2	8
Since 2022vs Right	.260	984	266	97	227	41	2	43
2024vs Left	.167	18	4	0	3	0	0	0
2024vs Right	.226	70	25	8	14	1	0	1
2023vs Left	.214	141	39	8	28	5	0	6
2023vs Right	.266	559	142	40	137	22	1	21
2022vs Left	.198	99	25	9	17	3	2	2
2022vs Right	.256	355	99	49	76	18	1	21
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-9%

ERA at Home

2024

-46%

ERA at Home

2023

-5%

ERA on Road

2022

-23%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	4.00	1.15	146.1	12	6	1	10.9	3.3	1.8
Since 2022Away	4.39	1.54	143.2	6	8	0	9.8	3.8	1.4
2024Home	1.50	0.83	12.0	1	0	0	13.5	2.3	0.0
2024Away	2.79	1.55	9.2	0	1	0	10.2	4.7	0.9
2023Home	3.97	1.18	79.1	6	3	0	9.9	3.1	1.6
2023Away	3.77	1.35	88.1	5	3	0	9.6	2.1	1.3
2022Home	4.58	1.16	55.0	5	3	1	11.8	3.8	2.5
2022Away	5.91	1.91	45.2	1	4	0	10.2	6.9	1.6
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Stat Review

How does Yusei Kikuchi compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

3.63

K/9

12.0

BB/9

3.3

HR/9

0.4

Fastball

95.6 mph

ERA

2.08

WHIP

1.15

BABIP

.333

GB/FB

2.25

Left On Base

84.7%

Swinging Strike

11.9%

Prospect Rankings History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Improbable resurgence?

PToronto Blue Jays

March 29, 2023

Kikuchi posted a 1.00 ERA across 18 Grapefruit League innings this spring, a far cry from his 5.18 ERA last season, as well as his cumulative 5.02 ERA across four MLB seasons.

ANALYSIS
Kikuchi's underlying issues have still been present in spring training, as he walked10 hitters to go along with his 25 strikeouts. His 12.8 percent walk rate ranked in the bottom-three percent of all pitchers last season. Overall, 2022 was an ugly campaign for the 31-year-old, so it's best to remain skeptical of the resurgence until he corroborates he's capable of duplicating it during the regular season.

See All MLB Rumors

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2016

Kikuchi is at a career crossroads as his non COVID-shortened seasons look terrible by most measures. His ERA and ERA estimators have been messy in each of those seasons, and then he further compounded problems in 2022 with a noticeable spike in his walk rate with a healthy dose of homers. Just six pitchers have ever thrown at least 100 innings with walk rates of at least 12% while allowing 2 homers per nine innings as Kikuchi did and those names include Oliver Perez, Andy Benes, and Derek Holland and each of their ERAs were over a full run higher than what Kikuchi somehow pulled off last season at 5.19. The strikeout rate was am impressive as he ran away from his cutter and threw more fastballs, but only his changeup was tough to hit for the league. It is perplexing to see someone with such poor overall numbers to have four pitches with Whiff rates above 25%, but that is what Kikuchi pulled off last season. Perhaps there is a brighter future for him in relief where he can pump up the velocity in shorter stints because he has had issues sustaining that over the course of a season. Funny data point: did you know Kikuchi's four-seam fastball generated more swings and misses in 2022 than four-seamers thrown by Justin Verlander and Alek Manoah? Now you do.

Kikuchi appeared set to deliver the breakout campaign that many projected prior to the 2021 season, maintaining a 3.46 ERA with an 81:26 K:BB across his first 80.2 innings and 13 starts. However, he crumbled from there, posting a 5.42 ERA across his last 16 outings. Perhaps coincidentally, his problems began with the crackdown on the use of foreign substances. When viewing Kikuchi's profile as a whole, home runs remain a significant problem (1.6 HR/9) and his walk rate also remains higher than would be desirable (9.3 BB%). However, by far the biggest problem for Kikuchi is the amount of hard contact he surrenders, highlighted by an 11% barrel rate, 47% hard hit rate, and 91.9 mph average exit velocity. Kikuchi agreed to a three-year, $36 million deal with the Blue Jays and will be pitching in the AL East for the foreseeable future.

On the surface, Kikuchi has had some rough sledding in his transition from pitching in Japan to pitching in the majors. Two consecutive season of bad ratios and a lack of wins while pitching for a perpetually rebuilding Seattle franchise. If you solely focus on the surface stats, you will miss the progress he is making as a pitcher. The southpaw added a new cutter in 2020 and made it his primary pitch, but like with anything new, it took some time getting used to. Kikuchi struggled with walks, but still struck out nearly a quarter of the hitters he faced and his expected stats do not look like they belong to a guy coming off a 5.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP season. The cutter helped him greatly against righties as their weighted on-base average against him dropped 75 points year over year. Seattle is not a great team, but Kikuchi is a good pitcher whose surface stats create a strong buying opportunity in 2021.

Kikuchi fell far short of expectations in his first major-league season, posting a 5.46 ERA and 1.52 WHIP after recording a 2.50 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over three seasons in Japan. The 28-year-old struggled to miss bats, posting a 16.1 K% that would have ranked fourth worst among major-league starters had he logged enough innings to qualify, along with a middling 8.8% swinging-strike rate. The Mariners took measures to limit Kikuchi's workload as he adjusted to the rigors of the MLB schedule. The southpaw served up a whopping 36 home runs despite throwing only 161.2 frames, with right-handed batters teeing off to the tune of .304/.359/.545 against Kikuchi. He figures to have a rotation spot on a rebuilding Mariners club, but there is little reason to think a big improvement is coming in his second big-league season. Throw your dart elsewhere.

A three-time All-Star in Japan (2013, 2017, 2018), Kikuchi was 14-4 with a 3.08 ERA, an 8.4 K/9 and a 2.5 BB/9 in 2018. He has a mid-90s fastball that he uses to set up a plus slider. While not regarded in quite the same star tier of Shohei Ohtani or Yu Darvish, the 27-year-old lefty still projects as at least a solid mid-rotation starter in MLB. Kikuchi signed a three-year, $43 million deal with the Mariners, with a $13 million player option for a fourth year and a team option for a four-year, $66 million extension after the first three years. He was dominant in 2017, logging 217 strikeouts in 187.2 innings -- both career highs. Kikuchi was similarly dominant in 2018 until a shoulder injury caused him to miss a month, and while he was able to return, he wasn't quite the same after that. He will be adapting to a new schedule where he'll pitch more frequently, so we should not expect the 6-foot hurler to log more than 160 innings on a rebuilding Mariners team.

Kikuchi attracted attention as a high schooler for his hard fastball and stated desire to forego a pro career in Japan and jump straight to the majors. That didn't happen, and injuries have so far deterred him from reaching his potential. Still only 24, Kikuchi showed signs of improvement in 2015 and if he can put together a couple of healthy seasons, he could establish himself as a quality lefty.

More Fantasy News

Strikes out nine Wednesday

PToronto Blue Jays

April 10, 2024

Kikuchi didn't factor into the decision Wednesday against the Mariners, allowing one run on three hits and two walks over six innings. He struck out nine.