This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Saturday provides us with a 10-game slate to work through. Let's get right to it!
DET (-5) vs. ORL O/U: 206
NYK (-5.5) @ NOP O/U: 214.5
IND (-3) vs. TOR O/U: 215.5
PHI (-3.5) vs. ATL O/U: 218.5
UTA (-4) @ CHI O/U: 217.5
MEM (-2) vs. MIA O/U: 217.5
MIL (-6.5) vs. SAS O/U: 224.5
GSW (-12.5) vs. OKC O/U: 220
MIN (-2.5) vs. DEN O/U: 221.5
PHO (-10) vs. CLE O/U: 215
IND Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) - OUT
While not an exact replacement at Brogdon's position, Chris Duarte ($5,600) is excelling with the increased opportunity. He'll likely absorb a good bit of Brogdon's usage.
UTA Mike Conley (knee) - OUT
Jordan Clarkson ($5,100) emerges as one of my favorite value plays on the slate with Conley out.
MEM Dillon Brooks (thigh) -OUT
MIL Jrue Holiday (ankle) - OUT
MIL Brook Lopez (back) - OUT
MIL Donte DiVincenzo (ankle) - OUT
MIL Bobby Portis (conditioning) - OUT
George Hill ($3,600) will draw the start in Holiday's absence. Also, the Bucks will continue to fill the gaps by sliding their frontcourt starters over to accommodate for Lopez's absence. I like both Pat Connaughton ($4,500) and Jordan Nwora ($4,300) as other top candidates to produce in this scenario.
GSW Damion Lee (shoulder) - QUESTIONABLE
Comments from Steve Kerr usually end up being DFS hemlock, but he said that he would give Moses Moody ($3,500) some minutes if Lee can't make it. Rostering him is a stretch, however.
Nine players reside at 9k and above in the player pool, with five of them exceeding 10k or more. My two favorites at the top are familiar high-end targets Nikola Jokic ($11.000) and Stephen Curry ($10,500). Jokic will duel with Karl-Anthony Towns, a player he's had success against in the past. On the other end, Curry will take his sharpshooting skills to face the Thunder, who are surprising some but still have a long way to go defensively.
Ja Morant ($10,100) and Jimmy Butler ($9,500) square off in Memphis tonight, and for the money, I favor Butler as the cheaper and more consistent player of the two. I also like Domantas Sabonis ($9,100), who we project at well over 50 FDFP. Compare that projection to the salary, and you've got a target who should exceed 5x value easily.
EXPECTED CHALK AND CORE TARGETS
Dejounte Murray, SAS ($8,600) @ MIL
Seeing Murray here again is no big surprise. We've already endorsed him three times over the first two weeks, and he continues to get high marks despite the steady salary increase. His rebound totals are unrivaled among point guards, and it puts him in the running for triple-doubles on a nightly basis. He also won't have to deal with an elite defender on the other end, as Jrue Holiday will remain sidelined.
Deandre Ayton, PHO ($7,000) vs. CLE
When a guy at 7k grabs 21 boards in a game, you've got to give him some love. He enjoyed one of the best games of his career against the Kings. While you can't expect a repeat, he stands to benefit as the top rebounder in the game against Cleveland, who has some inconsistencies and inexperience up front.
Fred VanVleet, TOR ($8,200) @ IND
It's time to give some love to VanVleet in what I think is a solid win opportunity for the Raptors. Without Malcolm Brogdon, Indiana's backcourt will struggle, and you don't want a perimeter beast like VanVleet to get loose for too long. He will sometimes burn you with a cold shooting night, but his shot volume is so high, he'll still net enough points to be relevant while throwing in some assists and rebounds as well.
Khris Middleton, MIL ($8,100) vs. SAS
Middleton moves to PF in the situation I mentioned above while Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300) takes up residence at the five. I didn't give Giannis an elite endorsement, but he's a nightly consideration. I really like Middleton at the four, however. His rebounding floor shoots up at the position, and he's also draining more high-percentage shots. While you lose a bit of his perimeter play, he's still hovering around 40 FDFP since making this injury-based shift.
There are some excellent value targets in the injury section, but these other underpriced players are worth a look.
Mo Bamba, ORL ($6,400) @ DET
We are projecting Bamba with 37 FDFP tonight, and he has a shot at going higher against Detroit. Bamba is averaging a nightly double-double and should have a relatively easy time repeating that kind of output against Isaiah Stewart.
Scottie Barnes, TOR ($6,000) @ IND
While this favorable matchup doesn't set up as well for Barnes, I'm interested to see how Barnes will handle frontcourt threats like Sabonis and Myles Turner as they try to prop up the Pacers' offense. Indiana will be missing their primary facilitator, and while that doesn't affect their defensive play, it could help Barnes make some stops. He could also find better positioning in the paint to prevent put-backs by Sabonis and Turner, who will be doing more work at the top of the key in this contest.
Franz Wagner, ORL ($5,000) @ DET
I would typically not hammer a game with such a low total, but I think Wagner's salary is too good to ignore. Although he regressed against Toronto, he's crushed salary value in three of his first six games. It looks like Jerami Grant will return tonight, but he'll probably be slowed by his recent injury, making tonight an exploitable spot for Wagner.