Matt Kemp enters 2012 as a consensus top-five fantasy pick.
Kemp was one of the bigger fantasy disappointments last season, but even in a down year, he produced 28 homers and 19 steals with 82 runs and 89 RBI. After being successful on 81 percent of his stolen base attempts in 2009, he fell all the way to 56 percent last year, although fantasy owners had to be encouraged to see him attempt 34 steals with just a .310 OBP. Kemp's batting average fell to .249, but that's a volatile stat, and he enters the year a .285 career hitter. He's extremely durable, eclipsing 600 at-bats in each of the past three seasons. He's a bit overrated in real baseball thanks to poor defense, but that doesn't matter to fantasy owners, and he enters 2011 humbled and motivated after last year's disappointing campaign. Kemp has improved his home run totals every season he's been in the majors, and he's fully capable of producing a 35/35 type season. He's going to be a part of a lot of winning fantasy teams this year.
Ian Kinsler and/or Rickie Weeks produce more fantasy value than Robinson Cano.
Cano is rock solid and about as safe as it gets when it comes to durability, and his floor is high with Yankee Stadium and New York's lineup both on his side. He's also a near lock to finish with the better batting average. However, his power upside is relatively limited, and the big difference in fantasy terms is stolen bases. Cano has averaged 3.3 steals over the past three years, and he's been caught more than he's been successful over that span. Kinsler, meanwhile, is just one year removed from a 31/31 season while missing nearly 20 games. He enters the year fully healthy and is slated to hit leadoff in a loaded Rangers' lineup. Weeks is coming off a year in which he hit 29 homers with 11 steals, 112 runs scored and 83 RBI. He's no match in batting average, but new manager Ron Roenicke plans on having the Brewers run like crazy in 2011, a stark contrast compared to last year's philosophy under Ken Macha. Weeks has been successful on 82 percent of his SB attempts throughout his career, and if he gets the green light, he's capable of swiping 30-plus bags with ease. If spring training is any indication, Weeks looks primed for a career-year. Of course, both Kinsler and Weeks are extreme health risks, but because of their power/speed combo, each ultimately has more fantasy potential.
Jay Bruce and Carlos Quentin lead their league in homers.
It's easy to forget, but Bruce is still just 23 years old. He's no longer helpless against southpaws, posting an .899 OPS against left-handed pitching last season, and has a favorable home ballpark for hitting. Bruce smashed a whopping 15 home runs over his final 105 at-bats last year, and while that's obviously an unsustainable pace, it reveals the kind of power upside few can match. Quentin is a disaster defensively and a pretty big health risk, but don't forget he was the leading candidate to win MVP in 2008 before a season-ending injury. He clubbed 36 homers over just 130 games that year. He's hit a home run once every 15.4 at-bats since joining Chicago three years ago. To put that into perspective, Albert Pujols has averaged one HR every 14.1 ABs in his career. According to the Bill James Handbook, U.S. Cellular Field had a home run index of 179 for right-handed batters last season. This means it was 79 percent easier to hit home runs there than the rest of the parks in the league, easily the highest mark in baseball. Over the last three years, Chicago's HR index is 145. There isn't a more conducive park for homers for right-handed batters than where Quentin calls home, and he has the power and skill set to take advantage of it. His 49.5 FB|PERCENT| was the third highest in the American League in 2010. Health permitting, Quentin can make a run at the 2011 home run title.
Coco Crisp goes down as the biggest fantasy steal of 2011.
If you prorate Crisp's numbers from last season over 150 games, you get this: .279-16-102-76-64. On a per game basis, that made him the 10th most valuable fantasy hitter according to Baseball Monster. Of course, that pace is unsustainable, and he remains one of the bigger injury risks in all of baseball - he's missed an average of 64 games over the past five seasons. Still, few players with his kind of speed – he's been successful on a remarkable 85.2 percent of his stolen base attempts (115-of-135) over the past five years – possess his pop as well. While stats in spring training are rarely predictive, a study by John Dewan, the owner of Baseball Info Solutions, has shown that about two-thirds of hitters who had a slugging percentage at least .200 points higher in spring training than their career total went on to beat their career average that season. Crisp, who has a career .410 SLG, slugged .690 this spring.