This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week, roughly 13 percent of pools got bounced with the Rams, Cowboys and Raiders, though the Vikings, Giants and Browns had to sweat it out.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIKINGS | Jaguars | 29.50% | 550 | 84.62 | 4.54 |
| Raiders | JETS | 22.70% | 345 | 77.53 | 5.10 |
| SEAHAWKS | Giants | 17.80% | 450 | 81.82 | 3.24 |
| DOLPHINS | Bengals | 13.60% | 525 | 84.00 | 2.18 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 8.30% | 825 | 89.19 | 0.90 |
| STEELERS | Football Team | 1.90% | 425 | 80.95 | 0.36 |
| TITANS | Browns | 1.70% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.52 |
| PACKERS | Eagles | 1.40% | 427.5 | 81.04 | 0.27 |
| RAVENS | Cowboys | 1.30% | 320 | 76.19 | 0.31 |
| BEARS | Lions | 0.80% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.31 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Like last week, this slate is spread out, in part because there are a lot of choices, and in part because a lot of the best ones (Chiefs/Steelers/Packers) have already been used.
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos play defense, and they know the Chiefs well, but the game is in Arrowhead, and the Chiefs are hitting their stride. I give the Chiefs an 88 percent chance to win this game.
2. Green Bay Packers
The Packers tend to bully weak teams at home, and the Eagles are bad and coming off a short week. I give the Packers an 83 percent chance to win this game.
3. Seattle Seahawks
The Giants are scrappy, but if Daniel Jones doesn't play I don't see
Last week, roughly 13 percent of pools got bounced with the Rams, Cowboys and Raiders, though the Vikings, Giants and Browns had to sweat it out.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIKINGS | Jaguars | 29.50% | 550 | 84.62 | 4.54 |
| Raiders | JETS | 22.70% | 345 | 77.53 | 5.10 |
| SEAHAWKS | Giants | 17.80% | 450 | 81.82 | 3.24 |
| DOLPHINS | Bengals | 13.60% | 525 | 84.00 | 2.18 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 8.30% | 825 | 89.19 | 0.90 |
| STEELERS | Football Team | 1.90% | 425 | 80.95 | 0.36 |
| TITANS | Browns | 1.70% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.52 |
| PACKERS | Eagles | 1.40% | 427.5 | 81.04 | 0.27 |
| RAVENS | Cowboys | 1.30% | 320 | 76.19 | 0.31 |
| BEARS | Lions | 0.80% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.31 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Like last week, this slate is spread out, in part because there are a lot of choices, and in part because a lot of the best ones (Chiefs/Steelers/Packers) have already been used.
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos play defense, and they know the Chiefs well, but the game is in Arrowhead, and the Chiefs are hitting their stride. I give the Chiefs an 88 percent chance to win this game.
2. Green Bay Packers
The Packers tend to bully weak teams at home, and the Eagles are bad and coming off a short week. I give the Packers an 83 percent chance to win this game.
3. Seattle Seahawks
The Giants are scrappy, but if Daniel Jones doesn't play I don't see them taking down Russell Wilson and the Seahawks in Seattle. I give the Seahawks an 82 percent chance to win this game.
4. Miami Dolphins
The Bengals without Joe Burrow are bad, but I don't entirely trust the Dolphins against anyone, given their lack of offensive firepower. I give the Dolphins an 81 percent chance to win this game.
5. Minnesota Vikings
They're the better team and playing at home, but they've also lost at home to the Cowboys, Falcons and nearly the Panthers. Also, if Gardner Minshew can play, I'd knock the Vikings down a couple spots. As of now, I give the Vikings a 79 percent chance to win this game.
6. Las Vegas Raiders
It's odd to see a team that lost 43-6 last week at 23 percent ownership on the road, but that's what happens when the Jets are on the schedule. The Raiders should bounce back, but an outdoor potential weather game isn't ideal. I give the Raiders a 75 percent chance to win this game.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
Depending on what happens tonight, I might bump them up, but either way they'll be playing on short rest, and matchups against the Ravens are typically physical. Moreover, the Football Team will have had 11 days rest. I give the Steelers a 73 percent chance to win this game.
8. Tennessee Titans
They're at home and facing a Browns squad that mostly beats up on the league's weakest teams. But Tennessee's defense is shaky, and if it turns into a smash-mouth contest, the Browns can also bludgeon teams with the run. I give the Titans a 72 percent chance to win this game.
9. Baltimore Ravens
They'll be off a short-week after a tough game with the Steelers, and like the Football Team, the Cowboys will be well rested. But the Ravens should have their quarterback at least, and they're at home. I give them a 68 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Chicago Bears -- I think Mitchell Trubisky is actually an upgrade over Nick Foles, but he's still light years away from a modicum of trust.
