This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was what Survivor is all about. If you saved the Rams for their Jets matchup or the Steelers for the Bengals, you paid the ultimate price. And I would have taken those two teams too! But every time I've won or come close to winning in Survivor it was precisely because I didn't have the top options available and lucked into a win on a mediocre option while watching the Titanic take down all its unsuspecting passengers. There's luck involved, of course, but the principle is always the same: it's not just the likelihood of something happened, but also the consequences.
Let's take a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | JETS | 35.90% | 450 | 81.82 | 6.53 |
| Bears | JAGUARS | 24.40% | 320 | 76.19 | 5.81 |
| TEXANS | Bengals | 13.30% | 345 | 77.53 | 2.99 |
| CHIEFS | Falcons | 7.00% | 502.5 | 83.40 | 1.16 |
| Buccaneers | LIONS | 5.50% | 400 | 80.00 | 1.10 |
| RAVENS | Giants | 4.70% | 505 | 83.47 | 0.78 |
| SAINTS | Vikings | 2.80% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.72 |
| CARDINALS | 49ers | 2.40% | 212.5 | 68.00 | 0.77 |
| Bills | PATRIOTS | 1.20% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.31 |
| FOOTBALL TEAM | Panthers | 0.90% | 125 | 55.56 | 0.40 |
| CHARGERS | Broncos | 0.30% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.11 |
| Eagles | COWBOYS | 0.20% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.09 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Keep in mind in Week 16, the ownership data is very noisy. You must look at who the other remaining teams in your pools have available and make your best estimate of who will be on what team.
Last week was what Survivor is all about. If you saved the Rams for their Jets matchup or the Steelers for the Bengals, you paid the ultimate price. And I would have taken those two teams too! But every time I've won or come close to winning in Survivor it was precisely because I didn't have the top options available and lucked into a win on a mediocre option while watching the Titanic take down all its unsuspecting passengers. There's luck involved, of course, but the principle is always the same: it's not just the likelihood of something happened, but also the consequences.
Let's take a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | JETS | 35.90% | 450 | 81.82 | 6.53 |
| Bears | JAGUARS | 24.40% | 320 | 76.19 | 5.81 |
| TEXANS | Bengals | 13.30% | 345 | 77.53 | 2.99 |
| CHIEFS | Falcons | 7.00% | 502.5 | 83.40 | 1.16 |
| Buccaneers | LIONS | 5.50% | 400 | 80.00 | 1.10 |
| RAVENS | Giants | 4.70% | 505 | 83.47 | 0.78 |
| SAINTS | Vikings | 2.80% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.72 |
| CARDINALS | 49ers | 2.40% | 212.5 | 68.00 | 0.77 |
| Bills | PATRIOTS | 1.20% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.31 |
| FOOTBALL TEAM | Panthers | 0.90% | 125 | 55.56 | 0.40 |
| CHARGERS | Broncos | 0.30% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.11 |
| Eagles | COWBOYS | 0.20% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.09 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Keep in mind in Week 16, the ownership data is very noisy. You must look at who the other remaining teams in your pools have available and make your best estimate of who will be on what team. The pot odds strategy still applies, but put more weight on your particular pool than the overall numbers.
My Picks
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens need to win out to lock up a playoff spot, and the Giants don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with them. I give the Ravens an 83 percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
There's some risk of the Chiefs coasting here now that they're two games up on the Steelers and close to clinching home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Falcons are at least a league average team too. I give the Chiefs an 82 percent chance to win this game.
3. Cleveland Browns
The Browns are solid, with their top-notch offensive line and running game, behind which Baker Mayfield has played well for most of the year. But their defense is average at best, and the Jets, having blown the No. 1 overall pick, have nothing to lose by going out and letting it fly. I give the Browns an 80 percent chance to win this game.
4. Houston Texans
The Bengals are terrible, coming off a short week and feeling good about beating a hated division rival, but the Texans don't play much defense. I give the Texans a 77 percent chance to win this game.
5. Chicago Bears
The Bears defense is good, and the offense, behind a resurgent David Montgomery is credible at least. The Jaguars are terrible and have the No. 1 overall pick, but Gardner Minshew gives them a puncher's chance, especially if Mitchell Trubisky has as bad game. I give the Bears a 75 percent chance to win his game.
6. New Orleans Saints
The Vikings knocked them out of the playoffs last year, but the Saints finally got the real Drew Brees back in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs. I give the Saints a 75 percent chance to win this game.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are an odd team -- they look lost on offense for stretches, then get it together and look unstoppable. The defense is great against the run, not great against the pass. If Matthew Stafford plays, the Lions can still be dangerous. I give the Buccaneers a 74 percent chance to win this game.
8. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are great, and Josh Allen is playing like Patrick Mahomes. But I don't think the Patriots will give it up easily at home. I give the Bills a 72 percent chance to win this game.
9. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals defense has been good of late, getting pressure and sacking the opposing quarterback. The 49ers have been good in stretches, but they've regressed of late, and C.J. Beathard is more of a caretaker than someone with upside. I give the Cardinals a 70 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: None
