Target Breakdown: Week 10 WR/TE Recap & Week 11 Sleepers

If you haven't already, be sure to check out sister article Backfield Breakdown.

Week 10 Sortable Leaderboards

Shows WRs with 20+ routes or 4+ targets, and TEs with 15+ routes or 3+ targets. 

Wide Receiver

Tight Ends

Links to RotoWire's Red Zone Stats

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

Rushing Stats

Year-to-Date Sortable Leaderboards

Minimum qualification: 8% target share in active games.

Sorted by target share, which only accounts for the games a player participated in.

Wide Receivers (YTD)

Tight Ends (YTD)

Week 10 Injury Report

Inactives

WR Robert Woods (ACL tear)

WR Antonio Brown (ankle)

WR Chase Claypool (toe)

WR DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring)

WR Curtis Samuel (groin)

WR Mohamed Sanu (knee)

WRs DeVante Parker (IR/hamstring) + Will Fuller (IR/finger)

WR Julio Jones (IR/hamstring)

WR Calvin Ridley (NFI/personal)

TE Rob Gronkowski (back)

TE Jonnu Smith (shoulder)

TE Logan Thomas (IR/hamstring)

TE Blake Jarwin (IR/hip)

In-Game Injuries

WR CeeDee Lamb left with a bruised arm in the second half of a blowout.

WR Anthony Schwartz was put in concussion protocol.

TE Ricky Seals-Jones left with a hip injury in the second quarter.

TE Hayden Hurst suffered an ankle injury.

TE Dallas Goedert left in the first quarter with a possible concussion and didn't return.

Waivers & Sleepers for Week 11

Limited to players rostered in less than half of Yahoo leagues.

Wide Receivers

Waivers, Pt. 1 — Potential Week 11 Starters/Streamers

1. Kadarius Toney - 46%
2. Sterling Shepard - 34%
3. Darnell Mooney - 45%
4. Jamison Crowder - 22%
5. Marquez Callaway - 34%
6. Deonte Harris - 19%
7. Kendrick Bourne - 7%
8. Randall Cobb - 14%
9. DeAndre Carter - 1%
10. Quez Watkins - 1%
11. Tre'Quan Smith - 3%
12. Jamal Agnew - 9%
13. Kalif Raymond - 10%

• Note: A.J. Green and Rashod Bateman are exactly 50% rostered and thus not included on the list. Both are excellent adds if you need WR help and can get them.

Waivers, Pt. 2 — Bench Stashes & Sleepers

1. Rondale Moore - 27%
2. DeVante Parker - 34%
3. Will Fuller - 25%
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown - 6%
5. Gabriel Davis - 2%
6. Donovan Peoples-Jones - 29%
7. Byron Pringle - 1%
8. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 9%
9. Nico Collins - 1%
10. Terrace Marshall - 4%

Tight Ends

Waivers, Pt. 1 — Potential Week 11 Starters/Streamers

1. Dan Arnold - 26%
2. Tyler Conklin - 30%
3. Gerald Everett - 20%
4. C.J. Uzomah - 21%
5. Evan Engram - 32%
6. Cameron Brate - 4%
7. Geoff Swaim - 0%
8. John Bates - 0%
9. Ryan Griffin - 0%

Waivers, Pt. 2 — Bench Stashes & Sleepers

1. Cole Kmet - 18%
2. Adam Trautman - 5%
3. Albert Okwuegbunam - 1%
4. Donald Parham - 1%
5. David Njoku - 7%
6. Juwan Johnson - 4%
7. Kylen Granson - 0%

Drops & Benchings

Drop'Em

WR Laviska Shenault

WR Mecole Hardman

WR Russell Gage

TE Ricky Seals-Jones

TE Jonnu Smith

Bench'Em

WR Courtland Sutton

WR Cole Beasley

WR Marvin Jones

TE Jared Cook

TE Pat Freiermuth

Week 10 Game-by-Game Breakdowns

Ravens (10) at Dolphins (22) 

• Watkins returned after missing three games with a hamstring injury, but the Ravens wish he hadn't. He pulled up short on a deep ball early in the game when he was worried about running into the goal post, and he later lost a fumble that was returned for a TD (on his only reception of the night).
  • Watkins got just 33% of snaps and 14 routes, while Bateman got 54% and 29 routes, not to mention eight targets.
    • Even if Bateman keeps the job, Watkins may be a thorn in his side. The rookie ran 10 fewer routes than Hollywood Brown and 11 fewer than Mark Andrews. The week before, with no Watkins, Bateman ran just four fewer routes than Brown and actually had four more than Andrews.
• Brown was heavily targeted again, but without the deep passes (102 air yards on 13 targets) this time. The Ravens threw him a bunch of quick passes to counter Miami blitzes, and it didn't really work.
• Duvernay kept the slot/third receiver job even with Watkins back.
  • Duvernay has actually played about half his snaps wide and half in the slot this year, as the Ravens also like to use Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown there. Thursday night, however, Duvernay got two-thirds of his snaps in the slot.
• Bateman has taken just 16% of his snaps in the slot, about the same as Watkins.
  • It basically seems like there's a huge role for Brown (WR1), a modest role for Duvernay (WR3) and then a big role (WR2) split between Bateman and Watkins.
    • We already saw Watkins get 7-8 targets in four straight games to start the season, followed by Bateman seeing 6-8 in four straight. This isn't the old Baltimore offense with zero receiving production behind Hollywood and Andrews. But, as mentioned above, the snap/route division between Watkins and Bateman will need to be monitored, even if the Ravens fan in me thinks they should just shove the veteran aside and let the rookie loose full-time.

• Gesicki put up a goose egg on a team-high seven targets, while Ford went for 4-84-0 on four looks and Wilson put up 4-87-0 on five targets.
  • Ford and Wilson both landed below 50 percent route share, with Miami again going extremely heavy on multi-TE formations and rotating the WRs behind Waddle.
  • The Dolphins have back-to-back wins now, led by their defense, but they've still scored multiple TDs on offense just twice all year, ranking 28th in points and 29th in yards. They're doing something different from the rest of the league (rarely going three-wide) and it isn't working at all. Sure, injuries are a factor, but it's not like the second and third TEs (Shaheen, Smythe) are any better than depth wideouts Wilson and Ford. You might argue the rest of the league uses 11 personnel too much, but being even more predictable in the other direction is just as bad or maybe worse, especially when your backup TEs aren't even good. Rant end.

Falcons (3) at Cowboys (43) 

• This was a worst-case scenario for everyone, with Dallas dominating possession and both teams eventually pulling starters in the fourth quarter.
  • Pitts and Zaccheaus still managed seven targets apiece, but Matt Ryan attempted only 21 passes (with nine completions for 117 yards and two INTs) before giving way to Josh Rosen (who had one completion and one INT on six attempts).
  • Pitts managed 4-60-0 as the lone bright spot, while Zaccheaus caught just two of his seven looks for 22 yards.
• Gage has two goose eggs in three tries without Calvin Ridley (NFI/personal), sandwiched around a 7-64-0 line on eight targets.
• Target share the past three weeks (W8-10) without Ridley, keeping in mind that Ryan has averaged only 26.0 pass attempts in this stretch:
  • Pitts (24%), Patterson (16%), Zaccheaus (13%), Gage (13%), Davis (11%), Sharpe (10%), Hurst (7%).
  • Basically only Pitts and Patterson are fantasy-viable, with Gage perhaps worth waiting on in deep leagues only.

• Lamb was dominant with 6-94-2 on seven targets but then left early with an arm contusion.
• Gallup (calf) played for the first time since Week 1 and took at least 40% of snaps in each quarter, while fill-in No. 3 receiver Cedrick Wilson was on the field for just a single play — a direct snap where he handed the ball to Tony Pollard.
  • Gallup finished with 3-42-0 on five targets.
  • Wilson was listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. Not that he's a threat to Gallup, but he should get more than one snap most weeks.
• 10 different Cowboys saw targets in this one, with Dak Prescott attempting 31 passes, Cooper Rush throwing three and even Ezekiel Elliott completing one.
• Cooper is 42nd among WRs with 19.9% target share. Injuries have been a factor, but that's been the case for a few years now, and his ability to produce anyway was a selling point pre-season. TDs have hid it a little, but in terms of catches/yardage, Cooper has been at his Oakland level of consistency, with around half the production coming in two huge games.
  • Seriously, he has five or fewer targets in more than half his games.
  • Don't worry about Sunday's low snap share, though. He got 76% before the fourth quarter, and ran a route on all but one of Dak's dropbacks. And he did put up 4-51-0 on the four targets, continuing what's been a highly efficient season.

Jaguars (17) at Colts (23) 

• Arnold wasn't targeted until inside of the two-minute warning of the first half, yet he finished with 5-67-0 on seven targets, plus a two-point conversion (and also another target wiped out by a penalty).
  • Arnold leads the Jags with 20.7% target share since joining the team, a mark that would rank fifth among TEs behind only Darren Waller (25.2%), Mark Andrews (22.3%), Travis Kelce (22.2%) and George Kittle (21.9%).
    • Yes, it's 20.7 percent of a dreadful passing game, but Trevor Lawrence does seem to be having a little more luck when he throws to Arnold, owner of a 69.2% catch rate and 8.1 YPT for the Jags (but still no TD, he's at 27-315-0 through six games).
• Marvin Jones, on the other hand, continues to struggle. The poor efficiency maybe shouldn't be a surprise given the circumstances, but it's definitely a surprise to see him with only 18.7% target share and 5.8 targets per game since DJ Chark's season-ending injury.
  • Jones has never been a target hog, but I would've set 20% as his floor in this offense, with Shenault, Arnold and Agnew being the other pass catchers.
• Agnew had no catches and two drops on five targets, but he took three carries for 79 yards and a TD. His 66-yard score late in the first quarter broke a 17-0 start from Indianapolis and kept Jacksonville in the game.
  • That's five straight games with at least five targets, though it was exactly five both of the past two weeks (after 7, 6, 12 his first three games in the slot/WR3 role).
  • Agnew is at 5.9 YPT and a 58.3% catch rate. He looks good for someone still learning the position, but polished he is not.

• Hilton finally made it through a game without injury/incident but finished with just one catch for five yards on five targets, landing behind both Pittman and Pascal for snaps and routes (but not targets).
• Jonathan Taylor saw eight targets, while no other Colts got more than five. Taylor and Hines combined for 12 of the 33 targets Sunday (36.4%) and now account for 22.8% this season
  • That's actually up a tick from 21.5% last year with Philip Rivers.
  • Rivers did like throwing to RBs, but that was probably overblown. He always played with good pass-catching backs, and in the second half of his career always played with coaches who like to throw to backs. Nearly any QB would've thrown a lot of passes to RBs last year within the context of a Frank Reich offense that had Hines, Taylor and diddly-squat at WR. Pittman has stepped up since then, but not at the expense of RB receiving involvement.
• Pittman's production has been consistent by WR standards, but his volume hasn't been. He has games with 15, 12 and 12 targets, but then also four games with five or fewer. Fortunately for fantasy managers, the low-volume quartet includes receiving lines of 5-71-0 and 4-105-1, so he's only turned in two duds through 10 games.

Lions (16) at Steelers (16) — OT 

• Hockenson, Benson, Raymond and St. Brown each played more than 90% of the snaps in 11 personnel. It was those four plus RB D'Andre Swift when Detroit went three-wide, which was only 45% of snaps with Sunday's game played in bad weather.
• The Lions ran 30 snaps (42%) from 12 personnel, with St. Brown playing just five of 30 (16.7%). He's probably still the most interesting of Detroit's receivers, but apart from a couple weeks, he's been limited to slot work in three-wide sets. That does put him on the field for most pass plays, but he misses out on some routes all the same, and often in situations where the defense might not be expecting a pass.
• Hockenson had nine or more targets in three straight games before this one.
  • He's now sixth among TEs in target share (20.6%) and air yards (451), though for the latter he's more than 200 yards behind fifth-place Mike Gesicki.
    • Hockenson's 6.9 aDOT ranks 24th out of 56 TEs with double-digit targets, but it's well below-average if we only compare him to the top guys at the position (at TE, the guys who see the most targets also tend to see their targets further downfield than their position mates, on average... Hockenson and Noah Fant being exceptions.

• Freiermuth saw nine targets, but his snap and route shares dropped with Ebron back in the lineup after a two-game absence.
  • Freiermuth also had a rough day in the rain, finishing with 5-31-0 and losing a fumble that cost Pittsburgh a shot at a FG.
    • And the nine targets came from 50 Mason Rudolph pass attempts, in a game where Johnson and McCloud both saw double-digit looks.
  • Mooth ran 28 routes on 52 Rudolph dropbacks (54% route share), after running 48 routes on 70 dropbacks (69%) over the previous two games. That's not a total death-blow to his value, as we can see with the nine targets, but it probably won't be long before Freiermuth loses his four-game streak with six-plus targets and four-plus catches.
    • It does help that JuJu and now Claypool are out, theoretically, but Pittsburgh still went with 11 personnel on 70% of snaps in Week 10, while 12 personnel was used 21% of the time.
      • Freiermuth played 55% of snaps in 11 and 83% in 12.
• Washington took on a three-down role with Chase Claypool (toe) inactive, scoring a nine-yard TD early on but then finishing with just 2-15-1 on six targets.
  • McCloud, filling in as the No. 3, caught nine of 12 targets for 63 yards, largely seeing quick passes near the L.O.S (6.8 aDOT).
• Diontae also lost a fumble in OT, but he led the team in targets, reaching double digits for a sixth time in eight appearances this year. He hasn't scored a TD since Week 5.

Browns (7) at Patriots (45) 

• RB D'Ernest Johnson saw eight targets, while no other Brown got more than five. Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum combined for only 154 yards and 33 pass attempts, with Johnson being the only player to record more than 26 receiving yards.
• Higgins was merely the No. 3 receiver again, and lightly used/targeted at that.
• Njoku and Hooper both saw slight upticks in route share post-OBJ, with four and five targets respectively, including one apiece in the end zone. Njoku finished with just one catch for 11 yards, while Hooper had 4-25-1. Still not a ton of upside here.
• Schwartz played 38% of snaps in the first half and saw one incomplete target before exiting with a concussion.
• Mayfield was pulled late in the third quarter, but other starters played deep into the game.
  • Even Landry got 62% of fourth-quarter snaps, though that was down from his 90% share through the first three quarters of the game.

• Jonnu Smith (shoulder) was inactive, finally missing a game with the injury that's been bothering him for nearly a month now.
  • Henry played 94% of snaps through three quarters, finishing with a season high for snap share despite sitting out most of Q4.
• Snap shares pre-Q4: Henry (94%), Meyers (76%), Agholor (74%), Bourne (48%), Harry (48%).
  • With Jonnu out, the Pats used multiple TEs on just eight of 54 snaps before the fourth quarter. Harry
  • Pre-Q4, each of Meyers, Henry, Agholor and Bourne took more than 80% of snaps in 11 personnel. Harry mostly took his snaps from the other WRs in two-wide formations, getting 76% of the snaps in either 12 or 21 personnel (Agholor - 62%, Meyers - 52%, Bourne - 10%).
  • It is a little different for Harry to take routes/snaps from Meyers instead of just Agholor, but it wasn't many, and might just be a one-week thing.
• Meyers finally got his receiving TD, and was one of four Patriots to see four targets.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson actually led the team with five targets, but three of the four guys who saw four targets scored TDs (including Henry, who scored two).
• Henry now has seven TDs on 21 catches over his past seven games.
  • He has six TDs on 10 red-zone targets, including 4-for-6 inside the 10-yard line.

Saints (21) at Titans (23) 

• Smith got more snaps, routes and targets than Callaway, who was stuck on a single incomplete target for most of the afternoon before putting up 2-37-1 on three targets on the final drive.
  • It wasn't a big workload difference, but previously Callaway had either been even with Smith or ahead of him in terms of playing time and usage. TBD which guy is more useful for deep leagues down the stretch.
• Trautman put up 5-32-0 on six targets, following 4-47-0 on seven targets the week before (and 2-4-0 on six targets in Week 8).
  • Trautman's 19 targets over the past three weeks tie Harris for first on the team.
  • Of course, Harris has 171 yards in that stretch, while Callaway and Smith have two TDs apiece. Trautman's 17 targets, on the other hand, have yielded just 11-83-0.
• RB/WR Ty Montgomery got a handful of backfield snaps early on with Alvin Kamara (knee) inactive, but Montgomery left with a finger injury in the first half and never returned.
  • Monty almost exclusively played WR this season before Week 10, mostly in the slot.
• Harris was still just the No. 3 receiver in terms of snaps, and he lost a fumble on a kick return, but he also put up another functional receiving line (3-84-0 on four targets, plus a carry for six yards).
  • The yardage was a season high, and gave him six games in a row with more than 30 receiving yards.
  • Harris is averaging 17.0 yards per catch and 11.6 per target, despite being targeted on 30.2% of his routes, the fifth highest rate in the league. Can't opponents figure out that the ball is going to him when he's on the field?

• Swaim has caught exactly four passes for 23-29 yards in three straight games now, but without a TD on Sunday after hitting paydirt Weeks 8 and 9.
  • He has 14 targets the past three weeks, but on only 45 routes, which is 47% route share (Brown, for example, has run 88 routes the past three weeks, good for 92% RS).
• With Julio Jones (ankle) out again and now on injured reserve, Marcus Johnson operated as the No. 2 receiver for a second time in the past three weeks and put up 5-100-0 on six targets.
  • Johnson's previous start, however, yielded just 1-8-0 on five targets (the Week 8 win over Indy).

Buccaneers (19) at Washington Football Team (29) 

• Brate scored his first TD of the year and ran more routes than No. 3 receiver Johnson, but his snap share was right in the usual sans-Gronk range (55-62 percent in four straight games), and Brate saw just two other targets (both incomplete) apart from the TD.
• Johnson has played 67%, 64% and 69% of snaps with Antonio Brown (ankle) out the past three weeks, catching 10 of 13 targets for 98 yards while running a route on 65% of QB dropbacks.
• Target shares the past three weeks without Brown:
  • Godwin (27%), Fournette (16%), Evans (15%), Johnson (12%), Brate (10%), Bernard (6%), Darden (5%), Howard (5%).
    • Evans, of course, has 186 yards and five TDs over the past three weeks, making the most of his 17 targets.
• Godwin is ahead of Evans for pretty much everything besides TDs at this point. Godwin has 11 more targets, 16 more catches and 111 more yards.
• Darden ran just four routes as the No. 4 receiver but had an interesting day nonetheless. His first target bounced off his hands and into a defender's, while the second went for a 29-yard gain.

• Carter put up 3-56-1 on six targets and 67% of snaps, after 3-51-1 on six targets and 70% of snaps in the previous game (Week 8 at Denver).
  • Carter seems to have the No. 2 WR job, barring a Curtis Samuel (groin) return at some point this season... and don't hold your breath on that one. Carter got far more snaps than Milne, Sims and Brown on Sunday, and also more than slot specialist Humphries.
• Seals-Jones caught three passes for 30 yards in the first half, before injuring his hip and missing the rest of the game.
  • RSJ was dropped in a lot of leagues over the Week 9 bye, and while he made sense for temporary TE help in Week 10, the combination of his hip injury and Logan Thomas (hamstring) potentially returning soon means Seals-Jones should be dropped in most leagues even though Washington is merely calling him day-to-day.

Bills (45) at Jets (17) 

• Beasley played nine snaps (28%) in the first half and none in the second.
  • The Bills used two-TE formations a little more with Knox back from a hand injury, but mostly they just used Davis over Beasley as the No. 3 receiver. Davis got a few more snaps in the first half (38%) and way more in the second
  • Don't listen to anyone who tells you they scaled back Beasley's playing time "because they didn't need him". The Bills lost to the Jags last week, and didn't pull away from the Jets in this one until right before halftime.
    • Beasley's playing time was way down while the game was still competitive, i.e., he was injured. The Bills didn't give him a game designation, but he did miss practice last Wednesday and was limited Thursday-Friday due to a rib injury.
    • That said, Beasley played through the same injury Week 9 at Jacksonville, catching eight of a team-high 11 targets for 33 yards on 67% snap share. So, he could be fine for Week 11, but even if he is, we won't necessarily know that ahead of time.
• Knox was targeted just once but returned to his usual role in terms of snap/route share.
  • He got 90% of snaps pre-Q4, with Diggs at 85%, Sanders at 73% and Davis at 42%.
• Davis finished with 3-105-0, but on only three targets, and running just 12 routes on 31 Josh Allen dropbacks. That, with Beasley limited due to the rib injury.
  • Davis probably needs Sanders or Diggs to miss time in order to offer any real upside.
• Diggs finally had his huge game. He's tied for seventh among WRs in targets (84) and ranks 10th in air yards (969) after the big day.

• Davis and Crowder got full-time roles, while Moore had to share snaps with Cole again. Smith, at least, was mostly phased out, even with Denzel Mims on the COVID-19 list. But still, most teams don't give six WRs snaps each week. It remains a problem for Moore, though one that can be overcome before the end of the year.
• Every time I doubt Corey Davis he sucks me back in. Every time he sucks me back in, he immediately falters. Very Sterling Shepard-esque.

Vikings (27) at Chargers (20) 

• No. 3 TE Stephen Anderson got just seven snaps and no targets despite putting up 4-39-1 on 45% snap share the week before.
  • Accordingly, Cook rebounded from 42% snap share to 56%, though you wouldn't know it from looking at the box score (1-10-0 on three targets, after 4-48-0 despite reduced snaps the week before).
  • Parham has played no more than 53% of snaps and no less than 41% in any game this year. He's scored three TDs but has yet to see more than three targets in a game.
• To think that I briefly flirted with giving Mike Williams the honor of being nicknamed Killer Mike... dodged a bullet there.
  • He did break his three-game streak with exactly five targets and two receptions... by catching four of six targets for 33 yards against a very beatable Minnesota CB group
• Let's be generous and throw out the Week 6 game in Baltimore where Williams saw reduced snaps due to a knee injury and the Chargers offense pulled a total no-show. Here are LA target shares for the three games since that Week 6 disaster followed by a Week 7 bye:
  • Allen (34%), Ekeler (18%), Williams (15%), Cook (12%), Palmer (7%), Parham (5%), Guyton (5%).
    • ^ Looks kinda similar to 2019-20, no?
  • The Chargers haven't been listing Williams on their injury report since Week 8, but you have to wonder if the knee is still bothering him, given the massive contrast between his before/after stats. Part of that is inevitable regression, but I'm not sure that's enough to explain it when the extent is to this level.
    • Then again, dude played 96% of snaps Sunday. If he's hurt, it's not visible and isn't impacting his playing time.
    • He also dropped a potential TD on Sunday. That was his seventh drop of the year, after just three last season. Allen also has six drops, to be fair... that's just part of the deal with being heavily targeted for the most part. But come on guys, help your young QB a little more.

• Conklin scored two TDs, first from five yards out and then a one-yarder on a fourth down.
  • He's now averaging 3.9 catches for 39.2 yards and 0.33 TDs on 5.4 targets.
  • Conklin scored just one TD on 32 catches before Sunday.
• Jefferson put up 9-143-0, with Thielen adding 5-65-0.
• Osborn drew six targets on 65 routes the past three weeks. FB C.J. Ham got seven.
• Herndon caught a pass on Minnesota's first play and finished with season-high 29% snap share, though it wasn't much of a difference from the past three games (17-27%). He's no threat to Conklin's three-down role.

Panthers (34) at Cardinals (10) 

• Nothing better than when Take II of the P.J. Walker Era, Pt. II, blends seamlessly into Cam Newton Era, Pt. II.
  • I guess anyone is better than Darnold if you're Robby Anderson, but it's hard to get excited about pass catchers playing with Newton, a subpar passer with a penchant for hogging red-zone TDs (with his feet, not his arm). Then again, Darnold was doing the same thing this year.
• The team target lead is a poor silver lining for Moore, who still ranks sixth in the league for target share (28.6 percent) but has been eating his slice from a nothing pie lately.
  • The Panthers have six straight games with less than 200 team passing yards. In the NFL. In 2021.

• Kyler Murray (ankle) and DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) were out again, with Colt McCoy (and then Chris Streveler) replacing the former and Wesley filling in for the latter.
  • Wesley had 62 yards the week before, but he drew just seven targets total on 68 routes the past three games.
• Target shares the past two weeks with Murray and Hopkins out:
  • Kirk (25%), Ertz (20%), Moore (16%), Conner (16%), Green (9%, missed one game), Wesley (7%).
  • Kirk, Ertz and Green will all be solid starts if Murray returns before Hopkins. And same deal if Hopkins misses games in the future, most likely.

Eagles (30) at Broncos (13) 

• Smith put up a monster stat line on six targets for the second straight week. First, 5-116-1, and now 4-66-2.
  • He previously went seven consecutive games without a TD, averaging 3.9 catches for 50.0 yards on 6.9 targets in that stretch.
  • Overall, he's now averaging 4.2 catches for 60.3 yards and 0.4 TDs on 6.8 targets. Pretty darn good for a rookie with subpar QB play.
  • 61.8% catch rate, 14.4 YPR, 8.9 YPT.
  • His numbers are a little less impressive per-route, perhaps, as he's run a route on darn near every pass play for Philly this year. Smith ranks 28th among WRs in yards per route (2.08) and 34th in target rate (23.4% of routes). Which is still pretty darn good, especially for a rookie.
• Goedert left with a concussion after a big hit in the first quarter. Stoll and Jackson then split snaps at TE, replacing a starter who'd been handling an every-down role since the Ertz trade.
• Watkins, Reagor and Smith all played at least 44 of 46 snaps in 11 personnel.
  • In 12 personnel, Watkins got 61%, Smith took 56% and Reagor got 28% (JJAW and Greg Ward stole a few snaps as well).
• Watkins led the WRs in snaps and tied Smith for the team target lead, but the 4-33-0 receiving line is disappointing given that Watkins dropped what should've been a 34-yard TD.
  • Watkins has seen at least 72% of snaps in six straight games, with 16.1% target share and 24.4% air-yard share in that span.
  • Reagor, in the same stretch, has 10.5% target share and 9.8% air-yard share.
  • Smith, if you're wondering, is at 25.9% and 38.2%, respectively, with 14 more targets than second-place Watkins (37-23) over the past six games.
  • That is still just 6.2 targets per game for Smith the past six weeks, with Philly not throwing as much (but doing so more efficiently, especially when targeting the rookie).

• Jeudy again led the team in targets despite not getting much playing time in heavier formations. He took 42 of his 45 snaps in 11 personnel, which was plenty in a game where the Broncos used 11 on 76% of plays.
  • They do use 12 personnel a good bit though, with both Fant and Okwuegbunam posing a receiving threat.
• Small sample, but Jeudy is 16th in TPRR (26.9%) and 20th in YPRR (2.19)
  • However, his aDOT is 8.4, down from 13.8 last season. He's good in the slot and all, but more perimeter snaps and deep targets would be nice.
• Patrick saw six targets, including two in the end zone, but finished with 3-14-0
• Tough matchup, but even so, I think it's time to bench Courtland Sutton after the bye.
  • Sutton has nine targets and 78 yards in three games since Jeudy returned.

Seahawks (0) at Packers (17) 

• Babies born after Oct. 2020 have never seen Russell Wilson play good games in consecutive weeks.
  • Babies these days watch way too much football.
• Everett put up 8-63-0 on eight targets, his first game all year with more than five targets.
  • He's played four games with Wilson, Weeks 1-3 and 10. In those games, Everett has put up 2-20-1, 1-3-0, 5-54-0, 8-63-0.
    • Not exciting, but don't forget about him either. He's probably the closest thing they have to a third receiving threat.
• Lockett and Metcalf both were held under 30 yards, despite tying Everett for the team lead with eight targets.
• Swain was the No. 3 receiver, with 68% of snaps to just 27% for Hart and 8% for the rookie Eskridge.
  • Swain finished without a catch on three targets, his second goose egg in a row and third of the year.

• The Packers took 18 snaps in 10 personnel (1 RB, 4 WRs, 0 TE), after 19 the week before in the first game without TE Robert Tonyan (torn ACL).
  • They've gone four-wide on 27% of snaps in two games without Tonyan.
  • With Tonyan done for the year and RB Aaron Jones (knee) potentially missing a few games, there's a little more of an opening for one of Cobb/Lazard/MVS to get a decent target share.
    • But it hasn't happened yet. Target shares in two games since the Tonyan injury: Adams (37%), Cobb (13%), Jones (12%), Dillon (9%), Lazard (8%), Deguara (8%), MVS (6%).
    • Cobb seems like the safest bet for targets, if not routes, but his aDOT is just 8.6, whereas Lazard (11.0 aDOT) and especially MVS (20.2) can get more valuable targets if/when they do get targets at all.
    • The Packers have still used 12 personnel on 36% of snaps since Tonyan's injury, and Cobb doesn't play at all in the multi-TE packages. The switch without Tonyan has mostly been fewer snaps in 11 and more and 01.

Chiefs (41) at Raiders (14) 

• Hardman's snap share was 18 percentage points below his previous season low, and he also matched a season low with three targets. Very droppable.
• Pringle, Gordon, Robinson and Hardman all split time behind Hill, with Pringle the leader of that quartet in terms of snaps (60%), routes (34), targets (5) and production (4-46-1).
  • Pringle scored a 22-yard TD in the fourth quarter, but he also played 60% of snaps through three quarters, ahead of Gordon (47%), Robinson (39%) and Hardman (31%).
  • Gordon ran 20 routes without seeing a target. He has four targets on 65 routes this year.
• Hill has been targeted on 31% of his routes and Kelce on 25% of his. Apart from that, no Chief is at even 20%, with Hardman and Darrel Williams (19%) being closest.
  • Pringle is at 16%, Robinson at a measly 9%.
  • TPRR is pretty sticky, and it's obviously going to be low for Pringle if Hill and Kelce stay healthy. At 16%, he needs 31.3 routes per game in order to get 5.0 targets per game.
    • My best guess is that Pringle is basically just a better version of Robinson, even if he does lock down that No. 2 role. But the 77% route share is interesting, especially with Hardman seeing reduced snaps and Pringle having a nice game in his larger role.
    • I'd rather stash Pringle than Gordon. No question.

• Edwards put up 4-88-1, but with exactly four targets... for a fourth straight week.
• Renfrow caught exactly seven passes for a third straight game. He still hasn't topped 77 yards in a game, but with 52 receptions and four TDs in nine appearances, the numbers check out for PPR at least.
• Zay has seven targets and two catches on 96% and 85% of snaps the past two weeks. Jon Gruden likes him for run-blocking, I believe, or at this point just because there's nobody else (until D-Jax is up to speed!).
• Waller's efficiency stats by year:
  • 2019: 76.9% catch rate, 9.8 YPT
  • 2020: 73.8% catch rate, 8.2 YPT
  • 2021: 62.0% catch rate, 7.0 YPT
  • I don't think he's getting worse, but I do think he needs teammates who draw more attention away from defenders. Waller does still lead all TEs in target share, accounting for 25.2% of the Raiders' looks in his eight active games.

Rams (10) at 49ers (31) 

• Jefferson now has four straight games with either six or seven targets and three or four catches.
• Skowronek ended up playing more than Beckham, as mentioned on the broadcast about 10 times before I muted it.
  • Did you know that the Rams like to go no-huddle? But they can't if one of the players doesn't know the playbook! What a conundrum.
    • He'll figure out the playbook soon enough, and they won't be down 24 very often. I'm just not 100 percent sure Beckham is still good... TBD.
• Kupp had six catches for 72 yards in the fourth quarter.
  • Pumping up stats in garbage time during a potential record-breaking season is just begging for the gods to step in with an injury. Just ask Christian McCaffrey, who has played eight games in two seasons since the Panthers absurdly force-fed him targets to break a stupid record nobody cares about at the end of 2019.
    • I don't actually believe it's bad luck, but every snap carries injury risk, and the goal is to win the Super Bowl, not prove that you're a genius by somehow getting Cooper Kupp to break records set by all-time greats.

• Jennings filled in for Mohamed Sanu, who was placed on IR with a knee injury. He'll miss at least two more games.
• Samuel put up 30 fantasy points on five targets, thanks to a 5-36-1 rushing line and a 40-yard TD reception late in the game.
  • He's a wizard. If not for drops, he'd average a million points per game and a million yards per target.
• Deebo and Kittle stole the show, but Aiyuk at least held serve in terms of playing time, even leading the team with 20 routes run (one more than Samuel).
  • Kittle put up 5-50-1 on seven targets and only 16 routes.